IAP-25-123

The vulnerability of tourists to volcanic hazards in Indonesia

Indonesia is one of the most tectonically and volcanically active countries in the world with over 127 active volcanoes. Each year, millions of tourists visit volcanic landscapes drawn by their unique natural beauty, adventure tourism, hot springs and spiritual and mythological significance. In 2024 nearly 14 million international tourists visited Indonesia and contributed over $16 billion to the economy (5.1% of the national economy). Indonesia has 12 UNESCO Global Geoparks, many of which have active volcanoes capable of producing sudden explosions which can cause acute health impacts such as breathing difficulties, injury, and even death. Tourists can be particularly vulnerable to a natural hazard event, as they are a transient population who may not understand the potential hazards and how to reduce their own risk, due to lack of awareness, preparedness or, in the case of international tourists, language and cultural barriers.

This project seeks to understand and analyse the exposure and vulnerability of tourists to volcanic hazards in Indonesia using a case study location. The project will explore the hazard and risk perception of tourists and tour guides, and how volcanic hazard and risk mitigation information is communicated with tourists. Given the national economic importance and international cultural value, it is important to understand the sustainability and safety aspects of tourism to these active geohazard areas.

Key science questions:
1. What are the spatial and temporal variabilities in tourists’ exposure to volcanic hazards in geoparks in Indonesia?
2. What are the unique vulnerabilities of tourists to geological hazards at geoparks? And how does this vary for domestic and international tourists?
3. What is the level of understanding of volcanic hazards and risk perception among tourists?
4. How is volcanic hazard and risk mitigation information communicated with tourists and tour operators/guides?
5. Can we develop and test effective interventions to reduce the vulnerability of tourists to volcanic hazards?

The student will identify a case study Geopark to collect and analyse data on tourists, including numbers and nationalities to understand the dynamic exposure and potential vulnerability of visitors; and to explore communication.

Data collection will include desk based and fieldwork activities:
– Identification of datasets on international tourists visiting Indonesia, and national tourists travelling within Indonesia
– Identify any population movement datasets that can be used, such as mobile phone data, including data from apps; data collected by government / national parks
– Collection of volcanic hazard information including hazard footprints, for example tephra (ejected volcanic particles) fall, pyroclastic density currents, lahars (volcanic mudflows) and time dependencies
– Review of reported impacts (including health impacts) from volcanic activity/hazards on tourists in Indonesia
– Review of resources available to tourists visiting Indonesia and the case study location
– Fieldwork to survey tourists and tour operators at selected locations on their hazard and risk perceptions and their knowledge of mitigating or protective actions.

Data analysis
– Identify questions to interrogate data to understand population movement, seasonality / monthly / weekly trends in visitor numbers
– Carry out an exposure and vulnerability analysis of tourists to natural hazards
– Identify how data can be used to analyse dynamic vulnerability of tourists as they move around the country / region.

The student will work closely with Assoc. Prof Dicky Pelupessy from the Faculty of Psychology, Universitas Indonesia who has research interests in disaster research and community psychology, in addition to experiences of carrying out social research in communities residing near volcanoes such as Mt. Merapi, Mt. Kelud, and Mt. Sinabung. The student will also benefit from collaboration with Dr Rahma Hanifa from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) to support community engagement activities and field surveys.

This work will be part of strategic UK–Indonesia partnerships on geohazard solutions, as detailed in a 2025 white paper.

Year 1

Year 1 Q1 & Q2: Review of existing literature, data and communication products on volcanic hazards, tourism numbers and reported impacts on tourists. The student will use these to help identify a case study location for detailed data collection and analysis.
Year 1 Q3: Design field survey and complete ethical approval process.
Year 1 Q4: Fieldwork to conduct survey of tourists and tour operators in collaboration with BRIN.

Year 2

Year 2 Q1 & Q2: Data analysis of field surveys.
Year 2 Q3 & Q4: Write up and publish field surveys.

Year 3

Year 3 Q1: Complete analysis of population datasets, hazard footprints and other applicable data.
Year 3 Q2 & Q3: Exposure and vulnerability analysis and development of communication methods including development of novel, creative ways of communicating with tourists about volcanic hazards and risk.
Year 3 Q4: Begin thesis write up and publication of data.

Potential fieldwork to assess effectiveness of resources/communication tools, and to test new ideas, depending on funding.

Year 3.5

Year 4 Q1: Write up and presentation of findings to Indonesian stakeholders.
Year 4 Q2: Completion.

A student applying to this project should have existing skills in social research methodologies and statistical analysis. Ideally, they will have experience in applying these skills through a Masters or Undergraduate research project.

Depending on the student’s existing skills, training will be provided through BGS and Durham University on necessary aspects of the research, including social science data collection methodology; GIS; and exposure and vulnerability analysis, as appropriate. Training courses and opportunities will be identified during the life of the project, and the student encouraged to access training as appropriate.

The student will develop key skills on data collection and analysis methods; interdisciplinary working; communication and outreach; public engagement.

The student will also become a member of the BGS administered Centre for the Observation and Modelling of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Tectonics (COMET) network, and have access to additional training programmes, annual student meetings and exchange events.