IAP-25-100

Of woods and waders: balancing the competing benefits of conservation and restoration

Adaptation to mitigate climate change and biodiversity loss can conflict with economic development and unsustainable extractive industries. However, more subtle, but equally important conflicts are also emerging with increasing frequency – conservation conflicts. We define these conflicts as situations where multiple actions and outcomes of biodiversity conservation and climate mitigation actions are in direct conflict, or are hypothesised to be in conflict. Conservation conflicts are relatively new and are typically based on little evidence about the interactive effects, or when evidence does exist, it is out of context.

Wading birds have suffered substantial declines and are now of high conservation concern. Their distribution often overlaps with potential woodland creation sites because a large proportion of the remnant populations exist on marginal land between lowland agriculture, which is no longer suitable for them, and higher, montane land that is unsuitable for most wader species and for tree planting. Wader declines have been attributed to tree planting (afforestation) in addition to agricultural intensification, predation and climate-related factors. This new and important conservation conflict juxtaposes 1) the Scottish government’s desire to expand woodland cover to 21% of the country’s land area by 2032, to support climate mitigation, biodiversity recovery, and rural livelihoods, against 2) efforts to halt the alarming declines in species that are on the Scottish Biodiversity List, including ground-nesting wader species (e.g., curlew, lapwing). This active debate is made more difficult by the fact that current policies and practices around woodland creation are informed by limited research that lacks context, both in terms of geographical representation and the contemporary state of wader population status and dynamics.

This policy-focused and co-developed PhD project is timely as it will explore how woodland creation and wader conservation can be balanced in practice, using Scotland and Northern England as a natural experiment. The PhD will address this overall challenge through three themes:

1) In partnership with a consortium of landowners across Scotland and Northern England, we will identify all areas where contemporary afforestation has occurred in areas where wader monitoring data existed, either before, during or after woodland creation. Coupling diverse monitoring data (e.g., breeding bird surveys, citizen science surveys) with a complete and comprehensive registry of woodland creation, this project will extend understanding of the predator shadow hypothesis by asking why and to what extent woodland in close proximity to wader populations exposes those populations to increased predation risk from woodland-associated predators.

2) Working with Scottish Forestry, NatureScot, and RSPB, we will identify recently licensed woodland creation projects where wader-woodland conflicts exist along a gradient of conditions (e.g., extent of afforestation, proximity) and conduct intensive monitoring of wader populations and their putative predators. This aspect of the project will test hypotheses about sources of wader mortality. Specifically, by quantifying the effects of predation on wader populations, we will determine whether mitigation options (e.g., reduced woodland footprint or managing predator risk) are feasible to buffer against predicted predator effects.

3) Recent evidence has shown that diversionary feeding can successfully reduce predation risk on capercaillie (another important ground-nesting bird). Here, at the study sites identified in (2), we will experimentally deploy diversionary feeding to evaluate whether diversionary feeding can mitigate against any negative ‘predator shadow’ effects of woodland creation.

Using existing data (theme 1), field monitoring of predators and prey (theme 2), and a natural experiment (theme 3), this PhD project will provide evidence-based recommendations for woodland design and conservation management that balance biodiversity and restoration goals. This project is only possible through the collaboration and co-development with Scottish Forestry, NatureScot, and RSPB, who provide access to spatial data, existing monitoring sites, and policy expertise. The work directly informs the implementation of the Scottish Biodiversity Strategy and Woodland Expansion Programme.

Theme 1 is a desk-based data review and analysis using diverse data on wader monitoring (e.g. breeding bird surveys, the Wader Map, citizen science) and woodland creation (e.g., stand age, size, proximity to waders, fragmentation). These data will be integrated to investigate relationships between wader population status and woodland creation. Themes 2-3 are field-based, pairing recent woodland creation sites and adjacent open-ground reference sites, and conducting audio-based wader surveys and camera-based predator surveys. In theme 3, a subset of these sites will be used to test diversionary feeding as a mitigation method. With support from Scottish Forestry, NatureScot, Working for Waders and RSPB, we will host stakeholder workshops to identify critical implementation barriers and perceived knowledge gaps that will be built into the project from the beginning.

Year 1

Year one will involve: 1) Literature review and conceptual framework development; 2) compilation of national woodland creation and wader monitoring datasets; 3) field site selection and initial reconnaissance visits; 4) field/statistics/spatial analysis training, focus will depend on student background and skills audit; and 5) host the first stakeholder workshops with forestry and conservation partners.

Year 2

Year two will involve: 1) establishment of field data collection procedures across all sites (supported by project partners); 2) analysis and draft of Theme 1 ‘meta-analysis’ chapter completed; 3) develop diversionary feeding trials in close collaboration with landowner consortium; 3) develop AI-supported data pipeline for camera trap data to expedite processing.

Year 3

Year three will involve: 1) diversionary feeding experiment including wader and predator monitoring in DF sites; 2) statistical modelling of the predator shadow models (theme 1) and predator effects models (theme 2); 3) draft of Theme 2 chapter; 4) submit first manuscript (Theme 1) and first stakeholder briefing. International conference attendance.

Year 3.5

In the final 6 months, the second and third chapters will be finalised. The chapters will be integrated, and the PhD thesis will be written up. The final 6 months will include a presentation of results to partner organisations.

As with all students in our active cohort of UGs, PGTs and PGRs, the incoming student will complete a skills audit to identify a bespoke individual development plan focused on their employability, personal and professional development, and on ensuring they have the skills required to deliver the aspects of this ambitious research project that are of most interest to them. These skills will include field ecology and survey design (avian and predator monitoring), statistical modelling, programming and data science skills, stakeholder engagement and communication, engagement and collaboration with government and NGO sectors, policy-relevant synthesis of ecological and management data, and scientific writing and presentation skills. These will be delivered through a combination of IAPETUS-coordinated training events and project-specific training identified by the student and supervisors.