IAP-26-042

Impacts of Peatland Restoration on Hydrological Risks and Ecosystem Services under Climate Change

Peatlands are important for water regulation, carbon storage and biodiversity, yet drainage, erosion and land-use change have degraded many UK peatlands. Restoration is increasingly promoted as a nature-based solution (NbS) to reduce flood and drought risks while recovering ecosystem services. However, its effects vary with peatland condition, restoration technique, catchment characteristics and climate. Evidence of downstream risk reduction, particularly during droughts, remains limited, while potential synergies and trade-offs among ecosystem services are rarely assessed together. Furthermore, effects observed at individual restoration sites may not translate directly into reduced risk across a larger catchment (Shuttleworth et al., 2019; Karimi et al., 2025; Andersen et al., 2026).
This PhD will ask: How, where and under what conditions can peatland restoration reduce hydrological risks while enhancing ecosystem services under climate change? It will (1) investigate changes in flood and drought hazards associated with peatland restoration; (2) examine how these changes affect risk to downstream people, land and infrastructure; (3) assess co-benefits and trade-offs for carbon regulation, water quality and biodiversity; and (4) identify priority locations for restoration under present and future climates.
The River Nith catchment in south-west Scotland will provide the principal case study. Its upland peatlands, mixed land uses and downstream communities offer opportunities to connect restoration decisions with catchment-scale outcomes. Building on previous pilot work on peatland restoration and cascading hazards in the Nith, the project will explicitly test whether the location and extent of restoration determine its effectiveness. The aim is not to assume that restoration always reduces risk, but to establish when benefits arise, for whom, and at what cost or trade-off. Outcomes will include transferable evidence and spatial decision-support tools for nature-based risk management.

The project will combine Earth observation, field investigation, catchment modelling, risk assessment and ecosystem-service analysis.
First, GIS and satellite data (e.g. Sentinel and Landsat), digital elevation models, peatland inventories, restoration records and land-cover data will be integrated to map peatland condition, historical change, drainage and feasible restoration opportunities. Available meteorological and river-flow records will establish baseline hydroclimatic conditions, while mapped restoration history will be used to distinguish intervention types and ages where records permit. Relevant UK climate projections will inform future rainfall and drought scenarios.
Second, targeted fieldwork in selected degraded, restored and relatively intact peatland sites will validate mapping and characterise restoration condition. Subject to access and permissions, measurements may include water-table depth, vegetation, surface condition, drainage features and selected water-quality indicators. Repeat visits across contrasting seasons will be used where feasible, alongside available monitoring datasets. These observations will be used to ground-truth satellite-derived indicators and constrain model assumptions.
Third, an appropriate catchment-scale hydrological model will be selected, calibrated and evaluated against observed flow and available field data. Plausible restoration scenarios, including drainage blocking and revegetation at different locations and extents, will be compared with baseline and no-restoration conditions. Model evaluation will distinguish calibration from independent testing where the data allow. Changes in peak flows, flow timing, low-flow magnitude and duration will provide evidence of flood and drought hazard. Where suitable data are available, spatial information on exposed assets and vulnerability will be combined with hazard indicators to examine downstream risks. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses will explicitly test the circumstances in which restoration may have weak, neutral or adverse effects.
Fourth, ecosystem-service changes will be estimated using defensible spatial indicators and published methods, focusing on climate regulation/carbon, water quality and habitat condition. Carbon and biodiversity benefits will be assessed using appropriate emission factors and habitat proxies rather than assuming that short-term field measurements can capture long-term ecosystem recovery. Multi-criteria spatial analysis will identify restoration locations offering the strongest combinations of risk reduction and ecosystem-service benefits, as well as potential trade-offs and implementation constraints.
Engagement with catchment and peatland-restoration practitioners, potentially including the Nith Catchment Fishery Trust, SEPA and NatureScot, will inform scenario design and interpretation, subject to agreement. A short practitioner-facing placement may be arranged to translate findings into usable restoration-prioritisation guidance; no external placement is yet confirmed.

Year 1

Review the evidence and refine research questions; complete core training and a data-management plan; compile catchment datasets and undertake initial GIS/remote-sensing mapping; identify field sites and secure permissions; conduct reconnaissance and initial field surveys; select and test modelling approaches.

Year 2

Complete the main fieldwork and data analysis; validate peatland condition maps; calibrate and evaluate the catchment model; simulate baseline and restoration scenarios; analyse flood and low-flow responses and uncertainties; prepare the first research manuscript.

Year 3

Apply future climate scenarios; evaluate flood and drought hazards and, where possible, downstream risk; quantify ecosystem-service outcomes and trade-offs; produce spatial restoration-priority maps; discuss findings with practitioners; draft further manuscripts and thesis chapters.

Year 3.5

Integrate findings across research components; finalise decision-support outputs and publications where feasible; complete thesis writing, revisions and submission within the 42-month funded period; prepare for the viva and communicate practical recommendations to relevant stakeholders.

The student will receive interdisciplinary training in peatland ecology, field hydrology, GIS and remote sensing, catchment modelling, climate-scenario analysis, flood and drought risk assessment, and ecosystem-service evaluation. Technical development will include reproducible workflows in R/Python, geospatial analysis, model calibration and uncertainty quantification. IAPETUS training will support research design, data stewardship, field safety, scientific writing, communication, collaboration and professional development. Engagement with restoration practitioners will develop skills in co-producing research questions, interpreting environmental evidence and translating results into catchment-management decisions.